ENES

Champions Meeting · Guide

LONG

~Mar 27, 2027 → ~Apr 2, 2027Nakayama · 2500 m · Long · Turf · Right-handed

EstimatedWinterSnowySoft

Summary

  • Late Surger took 45 of 80 round-2 wins in one graded window, from 47.5% of opponent slots.
  • Ace of that sheet: Sakura Laurel, 18 wins from 55 appearances. Narita Brian in the alternate outfit was second (10 from 41). Christmas Mejiro Bright, the pre-event favourite, was 5 from 20 and did not pass them.
  • End Closer won 2 of those 80 races. Pace Chaser won 24.
  • Long S, stamina 1201+ and at least one gold recovery, guts 901+. Speed target on the build pages is 1550+.
  • The same round-2 sheet, opponents only, also has New Year Satono Diamond 32 appearances and 6 wins, Satono Diamond 27 and 5, autumn Tokai Teio 13 and 5, Christmas Oguri Cap 16 and 3, Symboli Kris S 8 and 3, and Narita Top Road 26 and 2. Round 1 of that window: Front Runner 62 slots and 6 wins, Pace Chaser 168 and 34, End Closer 50 and 4. On that round-1 sheet the general Special Week row was 26 and 8, and Christmas Mejiro Bright was 21 and 6.
  • One graded campaign finished 2nd in the group A final: a Runaway debuffer Twin Turbo, Kitasan Black, and a new Seiun Sky outfit. Round 1 was 37 wins from 40 races. Round 2 was 32 from 40. A self-selected poll brought Sakura Laurel 12 times and gave her 5 final firsts. Styles those respondents used: Front Runner 13, Pace Chaser 18, Late Surger 22, End Closer 11. Lid votes were 2 yes and 25 no.

Guides: Laurel + Brian + debuffer; a Runaway alters the Monster condition.

Running styles

Styles the guides favor: Late SurgerPace Chaser

Use is the share of rival Umas that ran each style in Japan: how popular it was, not how often it won.

Result: wins or first places in room matches set up in Japan with this CM's conditions. Small samples, not Global and not a win rate in the real event. In this CM the result counts the best rival on one author's sheet, with the author's own team left out: they are not real wins.

StyleVerdictUse in JapanResult in JP roomsNote
Front RunnerWeak15 %11.3 %as best rival (not wins)Measured 15% of opponent slots and 9 of 80 wins. A specialist Runaway plus two Front Runners was a side plan, not the volume. Sample: round 2, 80 graded races: 72 slots, 9 best-rival points
RunawayViablenot counted—Inference Runaway was not counted apart from Front Runner. Christmas Mejiro Palmer had 10 appearances and 2 wins in the round-2 sheet, counted with Front Runners. Guides treat one Runaway as a tow, not as the ace. Sample: not a separate row; Christmas Palmer 10 appearances and 2 best-rival points inside the Front count
Pace ChaserStrong31.5 %30 %as best rival (not wins)Measured 24 of 80 wins. Narita Brian's alternate outfit was 10 of 41. The Pace Chaser fastest accel on this course is the TM Opera O gold, and it misses if the lead is too far. Sample: round 2, 80 graded races: 151 slots, 24 best-rival points
Late SurgerBest47.5 %56.3 %as best rival (not wins)Measured 47.5% of slots and 45 of 80 wins, per-start 19.7%. Sakura Laurel led. Round 1 was already Late-heavy (200 slots, 36 wins) but Laurel converted poorly there (5 from 36). Sample: round 2, 80 graded races: 228 slots, 45 best-rival points
End CloserAvoid6 %2.5 %as best rival (not wins)Measured 2 wins in 80 races. Mr. C.B. was 1 from 16 in that round. Guides had already downgraded the style after Room Match. Sample: round 2, 80 graded races: 29 slots, 2 best-rival points

Expected room

Front Runners per room: no source counted them. Runaways per room: no source counted them. Measured

No source counted Front Runners in a full room of 9. The figures in the style table are one graded window or a pre-event Room Match sample, not a server census.

Umas

What Japan used and what the guides recommend, one card per outfit. A recommendation is a guide author's priority, not a chance of winning.

  • Sakura Laurel1st outfitLate SurgerAceNot in Global yet

    In Japan: Round 2: 18 wins from 55 appearances, the win leader. Round 1 was only 5 from 36, so the card was over-used before it started converting. Not in the Global planner roster. Measured

  • Narita BrianHungry Wolf outfitPace ChaserCoreNot in Global yet

    In Japan: Round 2: 10 wins from 41 appearances. Round 1: 9 from 29. The Global roster's Brian is Maverick (101601). This id is the other outfit and is not that card. Measured

  • Special Weekunconfirmed outfitLate SurgerAlternativeNot in Global yet

    In Japan: Round 2 sheet listed a Special Week outfit at 4 wins from 36 appearances. The Global roster already has three Special Week cards, and none was matched to that sheet with certainty, so this row does not reuse their portraits. Anecdote

  • Mejiro BrightChristmas outfitLate SurgerAlternativeNot in Global yet

    In Japan: Round 2: 5 wins from 20 appearances. Pre-event pages called this the possible number one. It won, and it did not lead the sheet. The Global roster's Bright is Brunissage Line (107401). Measured

  • Seiun SkySoirée des ChatonsFront RunnerAlternative

    In Japan: Guides name the cat outfit as the Front Runner that wants a second Front Runner beside it. The Global title of this id is Soirée des Chatons. From guides

  • Kitasan BlackGilded Shrine to GloryFront RunnerAlternative

    In Japan: Round 2: 4 wins from 25 appearances, inside the Front Runner count. This id is the Global 1st outfit. Measured

  • Sakura LaureloriginalLate SurgerMain pick

    Guides:Late Surger: Long kit and acceleration

    • Don't carry over conditions from another Nakayama
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    This character is not in the game data yet.

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Narita Brian餓狼Pace ChaserAlternative

    Guides:Pace Chaser: Strong Pace exception

    • Monster near the leader
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    This outfit is not in the game data yet.

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Mejiro BrightクリスマスLate SurgerAlternative

    Guides:Late Surger: Late long kit

    • Christmas-specific version
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    This outfit is not in the game data yet.

    umamusumelabo.com

  • Satono Diamond正月Late SurgerAlternative

    Guides:Late Surger: Competitive long Late

    • Complete acceleration and finish
    • Validate availability and version in Global

    This outfit is not in the game data yet.

    umamusumelabo.com

Stats and aptitudes

Speed Stamina Power Guts Wit
Recommended15501201120010001150
Minimum1400110011009011000

Stamina with a gold recovery skill: 1201.Without one: 1400.

Aptitudes: Long S is mandatory. Right-handed and Winter Runner are the speed greens. Turf S is the power aptitude guides want on Soft.

From guides Build pages want 1550+/1201+/1200+/901+/1150+ and at least one gold recovery. Late Surger pages add a 3.5% recovery because one gold speed skill spends about 2% stamina. Guts 901 is the track-correction line. A measured stamina cutoff tied to wins was not published. Stamina 1200 plus the recovery is the line described as enough to contest stamina, not just to finish.

Check your own build in the HP Calculator before training: these targets come from Japanese guides.

Skills

Inherited uniques 1

  • Angling and SchemingFront RunnerRunawayPreferred over a short inherited straight accel if the plan is to be 1st. The late race still touches a corner.

Gold skills 2

  • Late-race gold accelerationLate SurgerNot in Global yetLate Surger gold acceleration from the Manhattan Cafe support card. Guides call it the only fastest Late Surger accel on this snow course. The Global catalog has no English title for it yet.
  • Encroaching ShadowEnd CloserEnd Closer accel. The style still barely won, so this is the tool if the slot is used, not a reason to play the style.

Green skills 6

  • Nakayama Racecourse ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserNakayama green.
  • Non-Standard Distance ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd Closer2500 m is a non-standard distance.
  • Winter Runner ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserWinter Runner green.
  • Snowy Days ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserSnowy Days green. The weather is snow.
  • Right-Handed ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserRight-handed green.
  • Wet Conditions ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Power).

Team compositions

  • Sakura Laurel (Late Surger) + Narita Brian alternate (Pace Chaser) + one more Late Surger

    From guides Round 2 win share is Late Surger first and that Brian second. Guide shape was one Pace Chaser plus two Late Surgers.

  • Twin Turbo (Runaway debuffer) + Kitasan Black + a new Seiun Sky outfit

    From guides One graded campaign: 37 of 40 in round 1 and 32 of 40 in round 2, then 2nd in the group A final. Not a six-card deck.

  • 1 × Pace Chaser + 2 × Late Surger

    From guides Round 2 win share is Late Surger first and that Brian second. Guide shape was one Pace Chaser plus two Late Surgers.

Debuffers

Depends on the room A self-selected poll was 10 yes and 23 no. One winning graded run did not credit a debuffer. A Runaway debuffer can also feed the opponent's Pace Chasers. No sheet published a debuff activation rate.

Support decks

Decks published by guides for this CM in Japan. Some cards may not be in Global yet; the planner checks which ones you can use.

Deck shapes

  • 3 Speed / 1 Stamina / 1 Wit / 1 Pal · Late Surger · JP · Project L'Arc · umamusumelabo.com
  • 2 Speed / 1 Stamina / 2 Wit / 1 Pal · Late Surger · JP · Project L'Arc · umamusumelabo.com
  • 2 Speed / 1 Stamina / 2 Wit / 1 Pal · Pace Chaser · JP · Project L'Arc · umamusumelabo.com

Guides in other languages

  • Chinese · author guide · 2023-11-19 · vocus.cc

    • Sakura Laurel (original) · Late Surger · Strong
    • Satono Diamond (new_year) · Late Surger · Strong
    • Narita Brian (ravenous_wolf) · Pace Chaser · Alternative

    Update2024-11-19; the printed event date differs.

    No census; historical JP recommendation.

Measured data

Counts as their sources give them, each with its own sample. Win counts come from room matches or single accounts in Japan: small samples, not Global and not a win rate.

What was countedCountSample and limits
Rival entries · Front · Front Runner72 / 480 entries (15 %)R2, author team excluded No population win probability inferred.wawawa-pon.games
Rival entries · Pace · Pace Chaser151 / 480 entries (31.5 %)R2, author team excluded No population win probability inferred.wawawa-pon.games
Rival entries · Late · Late Surger228 / 480 entries (47.5 %)R2, author team excluded No population win probability inferred.wawawa-pon.games
Rival entries · End · End Closer29 / 480 entries (6 %)R2, author team excluded No population win probability inferred.wawawa-pon.games
Best rival (not wins) · Front · Front Runner9 / 80 races (11.3 %)Best rival per race even when author wins Not actual race wins.wawawa-pon.games
Best rival (not wins) · Pace · Pace Chaser24 / 80 races (30 %)Best rival per race even when author wins Not actual race wins.wawawa-pon.games
Best rival (not wins) · Late · Late Surger45 / 80 races (56.3 %)Best rival per race even when author wins Not actual race wins.wawawa-pon.games
Best rival (not wins) · End · End Closer2 / 80 races (2.5 %)Best rival per race even when author wins Not actual race wins.wawawa-pon.games

What may differ in Global

  • Same Nakayama 2500 geometry as other cups on this track, but the going is snow and Soft. Do not copy a sunny Firm or cloudy Good plan onto it.
  • Sakura Laurel and the Christmas and Hungry Wolf outfits are not the cards in the Global roster.
  • The El Condor Pasa final-corner gold does not belong in this build.
  • Global trains this cup years later, under a different scenario cap than Project L'Arc.

Gaps in the data

  • One graded observer, not a census. The 2023-11-18 lab URL above is the December 2024 page's sibling path; confirm the year on the page before quoting a newer Nakayama.
  • Special Week's outfit on the sheet was not matched to a Global title with certainty.
  • No Front-Runners-per-room figure.

Sources and credits

This guide is our own summary, in our words, of the research below; the findings belong to their authors. Follow the links to read them in full.

Guides cited